Time-varying causal models provide a powerful framework for studying dynamic scientific systems, yet most existing approaches assume that the underlying causal network is known a priori - an assumption rarely satisfied in real-world domains where causal structure is uncertain, evolving, or only indirectly observable. This limits the applicability of dynamic causal inference in many scientific settings. We propose Dynamic Causal Network Autoregression (DCNAR), a two-stage neural causal modeling framework that integrates data-driven causal discovery with time-varying causal inference. In the first stage, a neural autoregressive causal discovery model learns a sparse directed causal network from multivariate time series. In the second stage, this learned structure is used as a structural prior for a time-varying neural network autoregression, enabling dynamic estimation of causal influence without requiring pre-specified network structure. We evaluate the scientific validity of DCNAR using behavioral diagnostics that assess causal necessity, temporal stability, and sensitivity to structural change, rather than predictive accuracy alone. Experiments on multi-country panel time-series data demonstrate that learned causal networks yield more stable and behaviorally meaningful dynamic causal inferences than coefficient-based or structure-free alternatives, even when forecasting performance is comparable. These results position DCNAR as a general framework for using AI as a scientific instrument for dynamic causal reasoning under structural uncertainty.

Aprominent challenge is to train an agent capable of generalising to new environments attest time, rather than one that simply memorises trajectories and visual details observed during training. We propose a new learning strategy that learns both from observations and generatedcounterfactual environments.

Despite their enormous predictive power, machine learning models are often unsuitable for applications in regulated industries such as finance, due to their limited capacity to provide explanations. While model-agnostic frameworks such as Shapley values have proved to be convenient and popular, they rarely align with the kinds of causal explanations that are typically sought after. Counterfactual case-based explanations, where an individual is informed of which circumstances would need to be different to cause a change in outcome, may be more intuitive and actionable. However, finding appropriate counterfactual cases is an open challenge, as is interpreting which features are most critical for the change in outcome. Here, we pose the question of counterfactual search and interpretation in terms of similarity learning, exploiting the representation learned by the random forest predictive model itself. Once a counterfactual is found, the feature importance of the explanation is computed as a function of which random forest partitions are crossed in order to reach it from the original instance. We demonstrate this method on both the MNIST hand-drawn digit dataset and the German credit dataset, finding that it generates explanations that are sparser and more useful than Shapley values.

Figure 1: CAST generates counterfactual action and language labels for uncurated robot trajectory datasets using off-the-shelf VLMs. We use this augmented dataset to train CounterfactualVLA, a navigation policy that can follow complex language instructions in the real world. Abstract -- Generalist robots should be able to understand and follow user instructions, but current vision-language-action (VLA) models struggle with following fine-grained commands despite providing a powerful architecture for mapping open-vocabulary natural language instructions to robot actions. One cause for this is a lack of semantic diversity and language grounding in existing robot datasets and, specifically, a lack of fine-grained task diversity for similar observations. T o address this, we present a novel method to augment existing robot datasets by leveraging vision language models to create counterfactual labels. Our method improves the language-following capabilities of VLAs by increasing the diversity and granularity of language grounding for robot datasets by generating counterfactual language and actions. We evaluate the resulting model's ability to follow language instructions, ranging from simple object-centric commands to complex referential tasks, by conducting visual language navigation experiments in 3 different indoor and outdoor environments. Our experiments demonstrate that counterfactual relabeling, without any additional data collection, significantly improves instruction-following in VLA policies, making them competitive with state-of-the-art methods and increasing success rate by 27% on navigation tasks. Large vision-language models (VLMs) are powerful not only because of their diverse capabilities but also because they can be steered with fine-grained instructions to produce specific outputs. Ideally, powerful generalist robot policies should exhibit the same level of controllability on embodied tasks.

Reinforcement Learning (RL) has shown great promise in domains like healthcare and robotics but often struggles with adoption due to its lack of interpretability. Counterfactual explanations, which address "what if" scenarios, provide a promising avenue for understanding RL decisions but remain underexplored for continuous action spaces. We propose a novel approach for generating counterfactual explanations in continuous action RL by computing alternative action sequences that improve outcomes while minimizing deviations from the original sequence. Our approach leverages a distance metric for continuous actions and accounts for constraints such as adhering to predefined policies in specific states. Evaluations in two RL domains, Diabetes Control and Lunar Lander, demonstrate the effectiveness, efficiency, and generalization of our approach, enabling more interpretable and trustworthy RL applications.

Counterfactual reasoning, a cornerstone of human cognition and decision-making, is often seen as the 'holy grail' of causal learning, with applications ranging from interpreting machine learning models to promoting algorithmic fairness. While counterfactual reasoning has been extensively studied in contexts where the underlying causal model is well-defined, real-world causal modeling is often hindered by model and parameter uncertainty, observational noise, and chaotic behavior. The reliability of counterfactual analysis in such settings remains largely unexplored. In this work, we investigate the limitations of counterfactual reasoning within the framework of Structural Causal Models. Specifically, we empirically investigate \emph{counterfactual sequence estimation} and highlight cases where it becomes increasingly unreliable. We find that realistic assumptions, such as low degrees of model uncertainty or chaotic dynamics, can result in counterintuitive outcomes, including dramatic deviations between predicted and true counterfactual trajectories. This work urges caution when applying counterfactual reasoning in settings characterized by chaos and uncertainty. Furthermore, it raises the question of whether certain systems may pose fundamental limitations on the ability to answer counterfactual questions about their behavior.

The adoption of increasingly complex deep models has fueled an urgent need for insight into how these models make predictions. Counterfactual explanations form a powerful tool for providing actionable explanations to practitioners. Previously, counterfactual explanation methods have been designed by traversing the latent space of generative models. Yet, these latent spaces are usually greatly simplified, with most of the data distribution complexity contained in the decoder rather than the latent embedding. Thus, traversing the latent space naively without taking the nonlinear decoder into account can lead to unnatural counterfactual trajectories. We introduce counterfactual explanations obtained using a Riemannian metric pulled back via the decoder and the classifier under scrutiny. This metric encodes information about the complex geometric structure of the data and the learned representation, enabling us to obtain robust counterfactual trajectories with high fidelity, as demonstrated by our experiments in real-world tabular datasets.

Trustworthiness is a major prerequisite for the safe application of opaque deep learning models in high-stakes domains like medicine. Understanding the decision-making process not only contributes to fostering trust but might also reveal previously unknown decision criteria of complex models that could advance the state of medical research. The discovery of decision-relevant concepts from black box models is a particularly challenging task. This study proposes Concept Discovery through Latent Diffusion-based Counterfactual Trajectories (CDCT), a novel three-step framework for concept discovery leveraging the superior image synthesis capabilities of diffusion models. In the first step, CDCT uses a Latent Diffusion Model (LDM) to generate a counterfactual trajectory dataset. This dataset is used to derive a disentangled representation of classification-relevant concepts using a Variational Autoencoder (VAE). Finally, a search algorithm is applied to identify relevant concepts in the disentangled latent space. The application of CDCT to a classifier trained on the largest public skin lesion dataset revealed not only the presence of several biases but also meaningful biomarkers. Moreover, the counterfactuals generated within CDCT show better FID scores than those produced by a previously established state-of-the-art method, while being 12 times more resource-efficient. Unsupervised concept discovery holds great potential for the application of trustworthy AI and the further development of human knowledge in various domains. CDCT represents a further step in this direction.

Explainable reinforcement learning (XRL) methods aim to help elucidate agent policies and decision-making processes. The majority of XRL approaches focus on local explanations, seeking to shed light on the reasons an agent acts the way it does at a specific world state. While such explanations are both useful and necessary, they typically do not portray the outcomes of the agent's selected choice of action. In this work, we propose ``COViz'', a new local explanation method that visually compares the outcome of an agent's chosen action to a counterfactual one. In contrast to most local explanations that provide state-limited observations of the agent's motivation, our method depicts alternative trajectories the agent could have taken from the given state and their outcomes. We evaluated the usefulness of COViz in supporting people's understanding of agents' preferences and compare it with reward decomposition, a local explanation method that describes an agent's expected utility for different actions by decomposing it into meaningful reward types. Furthermore, we examine the complementary benefits of integrating both methods. Our results show that such integration significantly improved participants' performance.

In order for humans to confidently decide where to employ RL agents for real-world tasks, a human developer must validate that the agent will perform well at test-time. Some policy interpretability methods facilitate this by capturing the policy's decision making in a set of agent rollouts. However, even the most informative trajectories of training time behavior may give little insight into the agent's behavior out of distribution. In contrast, our method conveys how the agent performs under distribution shifts by showing the agent's behavior across a wider trajectory distribution. We generate these trajectories by guiding the agent to more diverse unseen states and showing the agent's behavior there. In a user study, we demonstrate that our method enables users to score better than baseline methods on one of two agent validation tasks.